Is road freight in Europe getting more expensive or cheaper? Spot and contract rates after Q2 2026

After several quarters in which contract and spot rates moved in different directions, Europe’s road freight market has changed noticeably.

In Q2 2026, both indices increased. The contract-rate index reached 148 points, up 7.9 points from the previous quarter. Spot rates rose even faster, reaching 146.8 points, an increase of 14.6 points quarter on quarter.

Year on year, contract rates were 15.2 points higher, while spot rates were up 13.9 points. After three quarters of clear divergence, the two parts of the market are once again moving in the same direction.

At first glance, this could suggest that demand for road freight in Europe has rebounded strongly.

The data tells a different story.

Freight rates are currently rising faster than demand. The main driver is the increasing cost of operating transport services.

Key figures from Q2 2026

1. contract-rate index: 148 points, +7.9 points q/q and +15.2 points y/y,
2. spot-rate index: 146.8 points, +14.6 points q/q and +13.9 points y/y,
3. average EU diesel price in Q2: EUR 1.94/litre, 12% higher than in the previous quarter,
4. long-haul operating costs measured by France’s CNR index rose by almost 10% year on year,
5. road freight volumes between Europe’s largest economies were still 1.6% lower y/y,
6. around 13% of truck-driver positions in Europe remain unfilled,
7. the index measuring expectations for future freight rates reached its highest level since the survey began.

These figures explain why the current increase in rates cannot be attributed simply to a larger number of loads.

What changed between Q1 and Q2?

During the first three months of the year, the market was still clearly divided.

In Q1 2026, the contract-rate index stood at 140.1 points and continued to rise, while the spot index fell to 132.3 points. The gap between them was almost eight points.

That changed quickly in Q2.

Contract rates continued to increase, but the spot market started closing the gap much faster. In just one quarter, the spot index rose by 14.6 points and ended only 1.2 points below the contract index.

This matters because the spot market usually reacts more quickly to current market conditions.

When vehicle availability is high and load volumes fall, spot rates are generally under downward pressure. But when operating costs rise and available capacity remains limited, carriers become less able to accept loads below a certain price level.

That is exactly what became visible in Q2.

Rates are rising, but demand has not recovered at the same pace

This is one of the most important conclusions from the latest report.

Road freight volumes between Europe’s main economies were still 1.6% lower year on year in Q2. That is a clear improvement from the 8% decline recorded in Q1, but it is still too early to describe the situation as a strong recovery.

Stabilisation is a better description.

The market is no longer losing volume as quickly as it did at the beginning of the year, but freight rates are rising much faster than the amount of goods being transported.

For shippers, this leads to an important conclusion:

weaker demand no longer automatically means lower freight rates.

If carriers’ costs rise quickly enough, transport prices can increase even without a strong economic rebound.

Fuel is once again having a major impact on freight calculations

Fuel was one of the main cost drivers in Q2.

The average diesel price in the EU was around EUR 1.94 per litre, 12% higher than in Q1 and 27% higher than a year earlier.

Volatility within the quarter was also significant. The EU average reached around EUR 2.19/litre in April before falling to approximately EUR 1.76/litre by the end of June.

This level of volatility is difficult for both carriers and their customers.

Carriers need to reflect current fuel costs in their quotations. Customers, meanwhile, may receive noticeably different prices for very similar routes only a few weeks apart.

Long-term contracts create another issue: how quickly can higher fuel costs be reflected in contract rates?

This is why indexation mechanisms and fuel-surcharge clauses are becoming increasingly important.

Diesel is not the only cost that matters

Fuel is the most visible cost, but it is far from the only one.

According to the French Comité National Routier index used in the report, long-haul operating costs increased by almost 10% year on year and 4.9% quarter on quarter in Q2.

At the same time, Europe continues to struggle with a shortage of drivers.

According to IRU data, around 502,000 truck-driver positions in Europe remain unfilled, representing approximately 13% of all positions.

This limits the market’s ability to increase available capacity quickly, even if freight volumes begin to rise.

In practice, freight rates are influenced by several factors at the same time:

1. fuel,
2. wages,
3. road tolls,
4. vehicle financing and maintenance,
5. driver availability,
6. demand on a specific lane,
7. availability of return loads.

That is why a general market index can show the direction of travel, but it cannot tell you exactly what a specific shipment should cost.

Not all European routes behave the same way

A European average always hides significant differences between individual corridors.

In Q2, freight volumes on the Germany–France corridor fell by 3.9% y/y, while Spain–France declined by 3.6%.

At the same time, the Germany–Poland corridor increased by 1.5% y/y.

This is also important when looking at freight rates.

There is no single “European transport price”. Vehicle availability and load volumes can look completely different on Poland–Germany than on France–Spain or Germany–Italy.

Direction matters as well.

The same pair of countries may show very different conditions depending on whether the shipment is outbound or inbound. If one direction has many loads and limited vehicle availability, rates may rise. In the opposite direction, carriers may be more willing to accept a lower rate to avoid running empty.

That is why benchmarks should be treated as a market reference, not as a ready-made price list.

Spot or contract – where is the greater risk today?

A few months ago, the situation was relatively straightforward.

Contract rates were increasing while the spot market remained weaker.

After Q2, that gap has almost disappeared.

For customers, this means that assuming “the spot market will always be cheaper” is becoming increasingly risky.

Spot offers provide flexibility, but they are also the most exposed to short-term changes in:

1. fuel prices,
2. vehicle availability,
3. seasonality,
4. public holidays and driving restrictions,
5. freight volumes,
6. local capacity issues.

Contract rates provide more predictability, but only when the cost-indexation mechanism is clearly defined.

In the current environment, the key question is therefore no longer simply spot or contract, but rather how the risk of changing costs is shared between the carrier, freight forwarder and customer.

What do the latest figures mean for carriers?

For carriers, Q2 brought some improvement in their ability to pass higher operating costs into freight rates.

That matters after a period in which fuel prices were rising faster than some transport quotations.

It does not, however, automatically mean better profitability.

If the freight rate rises by several percent while fuel, tolls, wages and vehicle financing all increase at the same time, margins may still remain under pressure.

When assessing the market, it is therefore worth looking not only at freight rates, but also at the actual cost per kilometre.

What does this mean for freight forwarders?

For freight forwarders, one of the biggest challenges is keeping quotations up to date.

A rate from several weeks ago may no longer be a reliable reference for the next shipment on the same lane.

Current vehicle availability, the day of the week, direction, fuel-market conditions and the local balance between loads and capacity all matter.

When volatility is high, communication with customers becomes even more important.

It is easier to explain a change in price when the reasons behind it are clear, rather than treating every new quotation as disconnected from the wider market.

What about shippers?

For importers, exporters and manufacturing companies, the Q2 data is a signal not to build H2 budgets solely on the assumption of weak economic demand.

Transport costs may remain high even when freight volumes are moderate.

It is therefore worth:

1. updating budget assumptions regularly,
2. avoiding long-term calculations based on a single spot quote,
3. reviewing indexation mechanisms in contracts,
4. planning key shipments further in advance,
5. analysing individual corridors rather than relying only on European averages.

What could happen in the second half of 2026?

The authors of the benchmark expect further upward pressure on freight rates in H2, mainly because operating costs remain high.

At the same time, weak industrial demand may limit the scale of further increases.

This creates a relatively unusual market environment.

On the one hand, carriers have less and less room to absorb additional costs. On the other, freight volumes have not yet recovered strongly enough to speak of a full market rebound.

In the latest market expectations survey, 54% of respondents expect freight rates to increase slightly over the next three months, while 31.9% expect a significant increase. Only 4.3% expect rates to fall. The sentiment index reached a record 28.3 points.

The direction of expectations is therefore clear, even if the scale of the next move remains uncertain.

eXportsy’s view

Q2 2026 shows clearly why freight rates can no longer be assessed only by looking at the number of available loads.

European freight volumes are only beginning to stabilise, yet both spot and contract rates increased significantly.

Transport costs increasingly depend on the actual cost of performing the service: fuel, drivers, tolls, vehicles and available capacity on a specific lane.

When planning transport for the second half of the year, the most useful question is therefore not only:

“Is the market growing?”

but also:

“What is happening to costs and capacity on this specific route?”

That is often where the answer lies to why today’s freight rate looks different from the one quoted only a few months ago.

FAQ

Did European road freight rates increase in Q2 2026?

Yes. The contract-rate index rose to 148 points, up 7.9 points quarter on quarter. The spot index reached 146.8 points, increasing by as much as 14.6 points.

Which increased faster: spot or contract rates?

Spot rates. The spot index increased by 14.6 points in Q2, compared with a 7.9-point increase in contract rates. After three quarters of divergence, the two indices are once again very close.

Does the rise in freight rates mean transport demand has recovered strongly?

No. Road freight volumes between Europe’s main economies were still 1.6% lower than a year earlier. This is an improvement from the 8% decline in Q1, but the figures point more to stabilisation than to a strong recovery.

Why are freight rates rising?

One of the main reasons is the higher cost of operating transport services. In Q2, the average EU diesel price was 12% higher than in the previous quarter, while the CNR long-haul cost index increased by almost 10% year on year.

Are all European routes becoming more expensive at the same rate?

No. The European benchmark shows the overall market trend, but the actual rate depends on the direction, vehicle availability, freight volumes and the possibility of securing a return load.

What is happening on routes connected with Poland?

Freight volumes on the Germany–Poland corridor increased by 1.5% year on year in Q2, while corridors such as Germany–France and Spain–France recorded declines.

Could freight rates continue to rise in the second half of 2026?

The report’s authors expect continued upward pressure due to high operating costs. Weak industrial demand may limit the scale of increases, but the record-high sentiment index shows that most respondents expect rates to continue rising.

This article is based on data from the IRU x Upply x Transport Intelligence report “European Road Freight Rate Development Benchmark Q2 2026”, published on 11 August 2026. The index figures show general market trends and should not be treated as a price list for individual transport lanes.